Sat, Apr 23, 2022·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 010 | 012 | 01 | 236 |
| FLA | 08 | 216 | 09 | 12 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:25TORMitch MarnerAssists: TJ Brodie, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 17:20TORJustin HollAssists: David Kampf, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 6:26FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mason Marchment, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 14:54FLAClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 2:26FLABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.26 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 18:38FLARadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 19:42TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:11FLAMaxim Mamin: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:19TORIlya Mikheyev: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:19TORIlya Mikheyev: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:19FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:19FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:45TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Marner – Matthews8:43
xG 1.40–0.05 (96%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev2:39
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Engvall – Mikheyev2:26
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews2:06
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Lyubushkin14:53
xG 0.95–0.14 (87%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl16:42
xG 1.52–1.12 (58%)attempts 20–22goals 1–1
- Giordano – Liljegren13:43
xG 0.83–0.53 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Duclair – Bennett4:29
xG 0.28–0.13 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Acciari – Lomberg – Luostarinen5:17
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Mamin – Lundell4:59
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Barkov – Reinhart – Marchment2:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Carlsson5:13
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–2
- Gudas – Forsling9:03
xG 0.11–0.36 (23%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling8:18
xG 0.48–0.80 (38%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).