Sat, Apr 23, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 07 | 113 | 211 | 331 |
| CGY | 09 | 216 | 46 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:44CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:00CGYDillon DubeAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 18:46VANQuinn HughesAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 5:36VANConor GarlandAssists: Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:50CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Chris Tanev, Trevor Lewis · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 13:33CGYDillon DubeGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 13:45CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 17:35VANElias PetterssonAssists: Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:21CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:07VANWilliam Lockwood: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:07CGYMikael Backlund: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:58VANBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestChiasson – Miller – Garland10:20
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Lockwood – Dries6:33
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Dickinson – Lammikko – Highmore9:31
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Boeser – Pettersson – Podkolzin11:35
xG 0.05–1.04 (4%)attempts 3–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Myers – Ekman-Larsson12:50
xG 0.39–0.63 (38%)attempts 7–20goals 1–3
- Hunt – Dermott12:40
xG 0.37–0.75 (33%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes15:29
xG 0.34–0.98 (26%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk12:10
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Coleman – Dube8:47
xG 0.28–0.27 (50%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Backlund – Toffoli – Mangiapane10:05
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Ritchie9:19
xG 0.17–0.41 (30%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Zadorov14:08
xG 0.89–0.39 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Tanev – Kylington16:45
xG 0.81–0.38 (68%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson14:54
xG 0.73–0.76 (49%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).