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Ice Lab

Tue, Feb 15, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York

Boston Bruins 1, New York Rangers 2 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsBOS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
BOS1809012032132
NYR02015111063234

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:39BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P3 6:45NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Dryden Hunt, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1

Shootout

  1. 1. BOS Jake DeBrusk scored
  2. 2. NYR Mika Zibanejad scored
  3. 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
  4. 4. NYR Artemi Panarin scored
  5. 5. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
  6. 6. NYR Alexis Lafrenière stopped
  7. 7. BOS Erik Haula stopped
  8. 8. NYR Adam Fox stopped
  9. 9. BOS Taylor Hall stopped
  10. 10. NYR Ryan Strome stopped
  11. 11. BOS Charlie McAvoy stopped
  12. 12. NYR Chris Kreider stopped
  13. 13. BOS Trent Frederic stopped
  14. 14. NYR Filip Chytil stopped
  15. 15. BOS Nick Foligno stopped
  16. 16. NYR Dryden Hunt stopped
  17. 17. BOS Craig Smith stopped
  18. 18. NYR K'Andre Miller scored
Penalties (6)
  1. P3 11:48NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
  2. P3 14:44BOSTomas Nosek: Cross checking2 min
  3. P3 14:44NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
  4. P3 16:32BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
  5. OT 2:48NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Roughing2 min
  6. OT 2:48BOSCraig Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BOS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NYR
48% to win52% to win
← BOS attackNYR attack →
  1. P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Strome
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BOSNYR
32Shots on goal34
3.0Expected goals3.0
51Shot attempts59
19Faceoffs won23
1Power plays1
6Penalty minutes6
25Hits36
13Blocked shots13
10Giveaways10
9Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Boston Bruins

Forward lines

  1. bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic7:57

    xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0

  2. Haula – Hall – Pastrnak11:50

    xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0

  3. Smith – DeBrusk – Frederic2:07

    xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  4. Blidh – Lazar – Nosek9:27

    xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGrzelcyk – Carlo14:21

    xG 0.68–0.45 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0

  2. Forbort – McAvoy2:41

    xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0

  3. Reilly – McAvoy17:34

    xG 0.88–0.90 (49%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0

New York Rangers

Forward lines

  1. bestReaves – McKegg – Rooney9:45

    xG 0.53–0.10 (84%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0

  2. Hunt – Gauthier – Chytil9:27

    xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0

  3. Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière11:52

    xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0

  4. Strome – Goodrow – Panarin14:07

    xG 0.42–1.00 (29%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestJones – Schneider14:44

    xG 0.86–0.22 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0

  2. Fox – Lindgren16:20

    xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1

  3. Trouba – Miller18:23

    xG 0.81–1.09 (43%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NYR 3.0 xGBOS 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NYRBOS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 40/100 · #840 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.38 · 2 goals in reachComeback index 21% (winner's lowest chance)
BOS 100%5050%50NYR 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 51% of the time.

NYR winsBOS wins

Simulated goal difference (NYR − BOS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).