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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 24, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Edmonton Oilers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.

CBJ winsEDM wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
EDM110114011235
CBJ11209410531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:08EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:58CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Jakub Voracek, Nick Blankenburg · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
  3. P2 5:30EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
  4. P3 1:36CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Cole Sillinger, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
  5. P3 9:14CBJNick BlankenburgPPGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
  6. P3 16:45CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Jakub Voracek, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
  7. P3 19:13CBJCole SillingerENAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.71 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
  1. P1 3:21EDMDerick Brassard: Interference goalkeeper2 min
  2. P1 6:19CBJEric Robinson: Cross checking2 min
  3. P1 18:28EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 18:28EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
  5. P1 18:28CBJEric Robinson: Roughing2 min
  6. P1 0:00EDMZack Kassian: Abuse of officials10 min
  7. P2 4:10CBJJustin Danforth: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 15:49EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
  9. P3 3:39CBJNick Blankenburg: Holding the stick2 min
  10. P3 8:01EDMEvander Kane: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

EDM00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0CBJ
48% to win52% to win
← EDM attackCBJ attack →
  1. P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against McDavid
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

EDMCBJ
35Shots on goal31
2.9Expected goals3.4
56Shot attempts51
27Faceoffs won29
3Power plays4
20Penalty minutes8
8Hits21
10Blocked shots10
1Giveaways1
4Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Edmonton Oilers

Forward lines

  1. bestKane – Draisaitl – McDavid2:52

    xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Hyman – Draisaitl – McLeod3:23

    xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0

  3. Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto8:02

    xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1

  4. Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl4:02

    xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBarrie – Kulak14:47

    xG 0.84–0.34 (72%)attempts 21–3goals 0–1

  2. Keith – Bouchard14:36

    xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0

  3. Russell – Ceci12:58

    xG 0.78–0.96 (45%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestBjorkstrand – Chinakhov – Sillinger6:27

    xG 0.42–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  2. Danforth – Bemstrom – Johnson4:10

    xG 0.17–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Bjorkstrand – Johnson – Sillinger2:14

    xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

  4. Kuraly – Meyer – Robinson8:51

    xG 0.22–0.36 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCarlsson – Kukan8:06

    xG 0.62–0.08 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

  2. Kukan – Bean2:43

    xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0

  3. Peeke – Bean10:14

    xG 0.28–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

CBJ 3.4 xGEDM 2.9 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

CBJEDM

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.

Excitement 61/100 · #572 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.70 · 7 goals in reachComeback index 24% (winner's lowest chance)
EDM 100%5050%50CBJ 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +28 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 58% of the time.

CBJ winsEDM wins

Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).