Sun, Apr 24, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 5, Nashville Predators 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 116 | 322 | 08 | 12 | 548 |
| NSH | 19 | 29 | 15 | 02 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:05MINNick BjugstadPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 19:57NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Dante Fabbro, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 6:36MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Connor Dewar, Joseph Cramarossa · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 10:40NSHMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 13:38NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P2 18:27MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 19:37MINKevin FialaAssists: Matt Boldy · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 14:20NSHDante FabbroAssists: Matt Duchene, Roman Josi · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–4
- OT 4:58MINDmitry KulikovGWGAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:15NSHLuke Kunin: Holding2 min
- P1 9:48NSHMattias Ekholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 12:31MINBrandon Duhaime: Interference2 min
- P1 17:27MINJoseph Cramarossa: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:36NSHDavid Rittich: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:36NSHPhilip Tomasino: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:06MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:42MINNicolas Deslauriers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:05NSHAlexandre Carrier: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:20MINNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:22NSHEeli Tolvanen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Fiala – Boldy9:10
xG 0.71–0.19 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Cramarossa – Eriksson Ek – Dewar6:14
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Jost – Duhaime6:52
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Hartman – Kaprizov9:08
xG 0.44–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Middleton3:57
xG 0.45–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Brodin7:07
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Merrill – Middleton4:05
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Johansen – Forsberg2:38
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot7:41
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:51
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Johansen – Tolvanen – Tomasino6:32
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Fabbro17:21
xG 0.99–1.04 (49%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
- Ekholm – Carrier11:06
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Benning10:55
xG 0.15–0.79 (16%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).