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Ice Lab

Sun, Apr 24, 2022·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise

San Jose Sharks 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4 (SO)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 88% of the time.

VGK winsSJS wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
SJS1111928011529
VGK116214110060446

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:43SJSTomas HertlAssists: Alexander Barabanov, Jaycob Megna · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–0
  2. P1 14:23VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
  3. P2 7:46VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 9:59VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Nicolas Roy · Snap, 0.05 xG1–3
  5. P2 18:55SJSNick BoninoAssists: Jaycob Megna, Matt Nieto · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
  6. P3 6:35VGKNicolas RoyAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Snap, 0.12 xG2–4
  7. P3 17:54SJSNick BoninoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–4
  8. P3 19:59SJSTimo MeierAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4

Shootout

  1. 1. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
  2. 2. SJS Logan Couture stopped
  3. 3. VGK Jack Eichel stopped
  4. 4. SJS Timo Meier stopped
  5. 5. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
  6. 6. SJS Thomas Bordeleau scored
Penalties (5)
  1. P1 14:10SJSTimo Meier: Tripping2 min · PPG
  2. P2 4:51SJSTimo Meier: Holding2 min
  3. P2 10:14VGKMax Pacioretty: High sticking2 min
  4. P3 4:19SJSNicolas Meloche: Tripping2 min
  5. OT 3:23SJSBrent Burns: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SJS00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VGK
48% to win52% to win
← SJS attackVGK attack →
  1. P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Couture
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SJSVGK
29Shots on goal46
2.3Expected goals5.3
60Shot attempts84
31Faceoffs won42
1Power plays4
8Penalty minutes2
38Hits21
26Blocked shots14
9Giveaways6
13Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

San Jose Sharks

Forward lines

  1. bestBonino – Couture – Nieto10:21

    xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0

  2. Balcers – Gregor – Bordeleau9:32

    xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0

  3. Hertl – Meier – Barabanov13:03

    xG 0.32–0.94 (25%)attempts 11–23goals 1–2

  4. Chmelevski – Reedy – Weatherby7:26

    xG 0.11–0.93 (11%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMegna – Meloche10:20

    xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1

  2. Burns – Megna2:41

    xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0

  3. Vlasic – Meloche4:23

    xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. bestPacioretty – Stone – Stephenson10:58

    xG 1.16–0.28 (81%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0

  2. Carrier – Kolesar – Roy6:08

    xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0

  3. Dadonov – Carrier – Roy2:48

    xG 0.14–0.08 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  4. Karlsson – Marchessault – Amadio7:55

    xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcNabb – Theodore15:01

    xG 1.14–0.13 (89%)attempts 25–8goals 2–0

  2. Martinez – Theodore3:10

    xG 0.41–0.10 (80%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0

  3. Martinez – Whitecloud15:23

    xG 0.79–0.64 (55%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VGK 5.3 xGSJS 2.3 xG
0123456P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VGKSJS

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.

Excitement 92/100 · #119 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.25 · 8 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
SJS 100%5050%50VGK 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +45 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 88% of the time.

VGK winsSJS wins

Simulated goal difference (VGK − SJS), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).