Sun, Apr 24, 2022·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 012 | 415 | 210 | 637 |
| ANA | 23 | 06 | 18 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Sam Steel · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:40ANAGerry MayhewAssists: Trevor Zegras, Andrej Sustr · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 7:29STLJordan KyrouAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 8:37STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Niko Mikkola, Robert Thomas · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 12:37STLIvan BarbashevAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 14:38STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 4:44STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Niko Mikkola · Snap, 0.04 xG5–2
- P3 5:37STLMarco ScandellaAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 17:19ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 3:24ANAJohn Gibson: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:56STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:40
xG 0.95–0.31 (76%)attempts 17–3goals 2–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad12:10
xG 0.75–0.26 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Walker – Brown – Toropchenko9:52
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Bozak – Barbashev – Kyrou12:55
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Faulk17:49
xG 1.06–0.53 (67%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Parayko – Mikkola6:01
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Scandella – Parayko14:56
xG 0.91–0.54 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestMilano – Mayhew – Zegras10:24
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Steel – Lettieri – Comtois7:26
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Simon – Aston-Reese – Lundeström6:59
xG 0.03–0.55 (5%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Henrique – Terry17:13
xG 0.34–1.26 (21%)attempts 13–18goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Fowler21:24
xG 0.83–0.67 (55%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Sustr – Vaakanainen2:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Sustr – Benoit13:03
xG 0.26–1.14 (19%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).