Wed, Feb 23, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Buffalo Sabres 0, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 04 | 014 | 014 | 032 |
| MTL | 111 | 16 | 212 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52MTLNick SuzukiGWGAssists: Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:57MTLNick SuzukiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P3 1:18MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 18:27MTLJake EvansENAssists: Ben Chiarot, Rem Pitlick · Backhand, 0.62 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:43MTLCole Caufield: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:43BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:57BUFDylan Cozens: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:01MTLBrendan Gallagher: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:32BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:32MTLBrendan Gallagher: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:17MTLAlexander Romanov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt8:25
xG 0.66–0.07 (90%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Cozens4:54
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Jankowski – Asplund – Biro4:49
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson5:13
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Dahlin4:38
xG 0.51–0.05 (90%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin4:55
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin8:32
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Gallagher – Dauphin6:22
xG 1.17–0.25 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield6:14
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Suzuki – Caufield7:23
xG 0.38–0.12 (77%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Dauphin – Poehling2:59
xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Clague12:56
xG 0.93–0.20 (83%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Petry – Kulak14:57
xG 0.75–0.19 (80%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Romanov19:07
xG 0.49–1.47 (25%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).