Tue, Apr 26, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 112 | 115 | 315 | 542 |
| PIT | 07 | 117 | 010 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:47EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Connor McDavid, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 5:23PITJeff CarterAssists: Mike Matheson, Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 5:48EDMEvander KaneGWGAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 4:08EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–1
- P3 9:13EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 18:26EDMZack KassianENAssists: Brett Kulak, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:12EDMZack Kassian: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:57PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:22EDMDerick Brassard: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:30PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:18EDMDerek Ryan: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:58PITMike Matheson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:45PITBryan Rust: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:06EDMBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – McDavid – Yamamoto9:25
xG 1.58–0.06 (96%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Brassard – Kassian – Shore7:30
xG 0.82–0.04 (96%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan5:31
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Foegele – Ryan – McLeod3:32
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Kulak17:07
xG 1.69–0.34 (83%)attempts 21–17goals 0–0
- Russell – Barrie11:57
xG 0.46–0.55 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Keith – Bouchard14:22
xG 0.59–0.91 (39%)attempts 17–20goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – McGinn8:57
xG 0.81–0.19 (81%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Rodrigues2:06
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Blueger – Heinen – Rodrigues2:15
xG 0.03–0.02 (58%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carter – Zucker – Kapanen3:13
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino10:17
xG 0.70–0.28 (72%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Letang – Matheson2:26
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:58
xG 0.49–0.68 (42%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).