Tue, Apr 26, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Islanders 4, Washington Capitals 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 05 | 38 | 426 |
| WSH | 110 | 09 | 014 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24WSHConor ShearyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 16:18NYIRyan PulockPPAssists: Kieffer Bellows, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 2:56NYINoah DobsonPPGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 8:42NYICasey CizikasSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 15:17NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:42WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:35NYIMatt Martin: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 12:13NYIOliver Wahlstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:33WSHTom Wilson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29NYIAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:35NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Eller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestMartin – Cizikas – Johnston9:44
xG 0.40–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Bailey – Lee – Pageau5:45
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Barzal2:47
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Martin – Pageau – Johnston2:21
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:12
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Pelech – Aho3:31
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Aho13:14
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Eller – Mantha10:15
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Dowd – Larsson – Hathaway6:26
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Johansson – Sheary11:21
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Kuznetsov – Wilson – McMichael8:55
xG 0.29–0.44 (39%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry13:54
xG 0.59–0.24 (71%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov4:52
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen9:18
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).