Tue, Apr 26, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 011 | 15 | 216 | 332 |
| COL | 011 | 312 | 211 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:38COLValeri NichushkinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 4:49COLErik JohnsonAssists: J.T. Compher, Alex Newhook · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 8:03COLJosh MansonAssists: Alex Newhook, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 13:01STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 0:09COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–4
- P3 15:45STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.27 xG2–4
- P3 16:49STLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:13COLNazem KadriENAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.76 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:24COLValeri Nichushkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:41STLRobert Thomas: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:57STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:10COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding2 min
- P2 11:31COLBowen Byram: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:03COLDevon Toews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:52STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestWalker – Brown – Toropchenko5:10
xG 0.47–0.15 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas2:05
xG 0.03–0.13 (20%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas11:26
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Bozak – Barbashev – Toropchenko3:13
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko7:00
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Parayko – Mikkola2:10
xG 0.01–0.04 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko5:05
xG 0.07–0.14 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:26
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Cogliano – Helm – Sturm5:54
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Aube-Kubel10:58
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Compher – O'Connor – Newhook6:11
xG 0.31–0.46 (41%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:51
xG 0.85–0.06 (94%)attempts 22–6goals 2–0
- Johnson – Byram9:26
xG 1.03–0.57 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Manson2:12
xG 0.04–0.05 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).