Thu, Apr 28, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 0, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 015 | 010 | 037 |
| BOS | 06 | 214 | 312 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:16BOSPatrice BergeronGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 12:29BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 2:11BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P3 4:16BOSTaylor HallPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–4
- P3 17:47BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.16 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:26BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:41BOSTrent Frederic: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:30BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:55BOSTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:54BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:29BUFVictor Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 1:28BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:11BUFVictor Olofsson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 4:30BOSTomas Nosek: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:30BUFCasey Fitzgerald: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Mittelstadt – Cozens2:56
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson8:47
xG 0.45–0.24 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Hayden – Asplund – Cozens5:57
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Hinostroza – Bjork9:32
xG 0.36–0.30 (54%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power11:41
xG 1.17–0.29 (80%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:21
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Fitzgerald – Bryson10:48
xG 0.20–0.66 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Lazar – Nosek9:56
xG 0.44–0.17 (71%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk8:25
xG 0.91–0.70 (57%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Smith – Coyle – Frederic9:21
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Haula – Hall – Pastrnak9:20
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy9:56
xG 0.75–0.34 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton3:29
xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Forbort – Clifton11:32
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).