Tue, Feb 8, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 04 | 314 | 28 | 526 |
| WSH | 111 | 211 | 111 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:19WSHGarnet HathawayAssists: Nic Dowd, Carl Hagelin · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 0:40WSHNic DowdAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:38CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 12:42CBJAdam BoqvistAssists: Max Domi, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 15:57WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 19:56CBJPatrik LainePPAssists: Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 2:40CBJTrey Fix-WolanskyAssists: Jack Roslovic, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 17:34WSHTom WilsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- P3 19:15CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Patrik Laine · Backhand, 0.20 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:24CBJSean Kuraly: Interference2 min
- P2 6:00CBJSean Kuraly: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:41WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:40WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 15:06CBJZach Werenski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:53WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 4:32CBJDean Kukan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestVoracek – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger4:12
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Bjorkstrand – Domi5:07
xG 0.18–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Jenner – Laine11:38
xG 0.50–0.42 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Domi – Chinakhov6:01
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKukan – Bayreuther11:57
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Boqvist11:41
xG 0.27–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke2:49
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:29
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Backstrom – Wilson – Snively10:39
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary11:25
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Eller – Sprong – McMichael7:04
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Jensen12:05
xG 0.26–0.32 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Schultz – Orlov5:42
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Carlson – Fehérváry13:56
xG 0.69–0.81 (46%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).