Thu, Apr 28, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 5, Colorado Avalanche 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 213 | 114 | 03 | 1 | 537 |
| COL | 320 | 114 | 09 | 03 | 0 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:01COLCale MakarPPAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:46COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Josh Manson, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 11:46NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Mikael Granlund, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P1 16:59COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 3:17NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–3
- P2 9:24COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Bowen Byram, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 16:28NSHRoman JosiPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
- P3 4:11NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Alexandre Carrier, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.01 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NSH Matt Duchene scored
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
- 5. NSH Mikael Granlund stopped
- 6. COL Nazem Kadri stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 1:56NSHMatt Benning: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 7:30COLLogan O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:30NSHMathieu Olivier: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:44NSHColton Sissons: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:20NSHMikael Granlund: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:19NSHYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:28NSHMark Borowiecki: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:06COLDarren Helm: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:15COLArtturi Lehkonen: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:39NSHMatt Benning: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:43COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:16COLDarren Helm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:07
xG 1.30–0.48 (73%)attempts 16–17goals 2–0
- Johansen – Kunin – Tomasino8:24
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Cousins – McCarron – Olivier6:36
xG 0.06–0.57 (10%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:50
xG 0.23–0.76 (23%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Borowiecki – Benning11:00
xG 0.63–0.70 (48%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Josi – Fabbro14:54
xG 0.74–0.91 (45%)attempts 16–21goals 1–2
- Ekholm – Carrier12:42
xG 0.33–0.97 (25%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Aube-Kubel – O'Connor6:20
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Helm – Sturm5:52
xG 0.42–0.30 (58%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Lehkonen7:21
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:33
xG 0.99–1.06 (48%)attempts 20–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram9:27
xG 0.87–0.55 (61%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Manson – Girard11:31
xG 0.89–0.82 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 2–0
- Toews – Makar14:17
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 18–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).