Thu, Apr 28, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 4, Edmonton Oilers 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 217 | 115 | 112 | 00 | 444 |
| EDM | 06 | 213 | 210 | 12 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42SJSNoah GregorAssists: Sasha Chmelevski · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 3:08SJSNoah GregorAssists: Thomas Bordeleau · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 9:17EDMRyan McLeodPPAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 12:52EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 15:35SJSScott ReedyPPAssists: Brent Burns, Logan Couture · Tip-in, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 9:37EDMDerek RyanAssists: Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 10:40SJSNick BoninoAssists: Logan Couture, Matt Nieto · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 11:45EDMPhilip BrobergAssists: Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
- OT 1:37EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Brett Kulak · Snap, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:07SJSMario Ferraro: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:59EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:33SJSMatt Nieto: Holding2 min
- P3 13:10SJSNicolas Meloche: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bordeleau won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Couture – Nieto9:53
xG 1.10–0.10 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Balcers – Gregor – Bordeleau9:23
xG 1.07–0.62 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Gadjovich – Chmelevski – Reedy8:23
xG 0.64–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov13:15
xG 0.94–0.59 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Meloche14:21
xG 1.57–0.44 (78%)attempts 24–12goals 1–2
- Burns – Ferraro19:13
xG 1.75–0.68 (72%)attempts 26–16goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Merkley11:54
xG 0.58–0.83 (41%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Brassard – Kassian – McLeod7:29
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – Ryan9:52
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Kane – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:17
xG 0.76–1.18 (39%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Yamamoto12:20
xG 0.72–1.30 (36%)attempts 8–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Kulak17:02
xG 0.56–0.76 (42%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Barrie – Broberg12:51
xG 0.61–1.56 (28%)attempts 14–21goals 2–1
- Keith – Bouchard17:22
xG 0.44–1.77 (20%)attempts 10–32goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).