Fri, Apr 29, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 16 | 09 | 111 | 226 |
| TOR | 310 | 010 | 27 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10BOSTrent FredericAssists: Craig Smith, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 3:51TORIlya MikheyevPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Timothy Liljegren · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:16TORWilliam NylanderUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–2
- P1 19:52TORNick AbruzzeseGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 8:00TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Pierre Engvall, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 12:49BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: Craig Smith, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 19:50TORPierre EngvallENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:48BOSMarc McLaughlin: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 14:49BOSNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:30TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:30BOSTomas Nosek: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:55TORTJ Brodie: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Spezza
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Frederic11:15
xG 0.61–0.34 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Wagner – Blidh – Nosek9:02
xG 0.51–0.48 (52%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Foligno – Lazar – Steen10:59
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Studnicka – McLaughlin9:17
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 12–9goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton12:00
xG 0.85–0.68 (56%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Carlo – Ahcan18:27
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Reilly – Clifton2:51
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Simmonds – Clifford9:17
xG 0.54–0.16 (78%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf10:28
xG 0.90–0.65 (58%)attempts 9–16goals 2–1
- Anderson – Kampf – Abruzzese2:46
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Anderson – Abruzzese2:01
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren4:00
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 2–0
- Giordano – Lyubushkin2:24
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Brodie7:17
xG 0.33–0.10 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).