Fri, Apr 29, 2022·Prudential Center, Newark
Detroit Red Wings 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 115 | 311 | 535 |
| NJD | 19 | 16 | 18 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:08DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:14NJDDawson MercerAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 6:30DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Sam Gagner, Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 15:38NJDNolan FooteAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Boqvist · Snap, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 0:54DETJoseph VelenoAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 6:57NJDFabian ZetterlundAssists: Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 10:33DETPius SuterGWGAssists: Jakub Vrana, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 19:50DETTyler BertuzziENAssists: Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 12:05DETOlli Juolevi: Interference2 min
- P3 2:38NJDP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P3 14:31NJDDawson Mercer: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Veleno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Veleno – Raymond13:38
xG 0.94–0.66 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Gagner – Vrana – Suter9:37
xG 0.38–0.19 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Elson – Sundqvist – Rasmussen8:46
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Lindstrom6:19
xG 0.44–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider3:52
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom2:31
xG 0.18–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Zetterlund – Foote8:18
xG 0.59–0.13 (81%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Vesey – Bastian – McLeod10:24
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Zetterlund3:58
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Foote – Holtz2:57
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Okhotiuk11:46
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Severson – Graves16:05
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Bahl15:01
xG 0.65–1.16 (36%)attempts 11–20goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).