Fri, Apr 29, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 2, New York Rangers 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 012 | 212 | 012 | 236 |
| NYR | 010 | 213 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:26NYRFilip ChytilAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 4:01WSHJustin SchultzAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 5:13WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 15:44NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Ryan Strome, Braden Schneider · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 6:42NYRDryden HuntGWGAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:54WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:29NYRFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:46NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:46WSHNic Dowd: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:27NYRPatrik Nemeth: Holding2 min
- P2 4:30NYRKevin Rooney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:03NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:58WSHNic Dowd: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:36NYRBarclay Goodrow: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Rooney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Mantha9:26
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 14–5goals 1–1
- Dowd – Hathaway – Jonsson-Fjallby8:22
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Eller – Larsson – Sheary9:24
xG 0.16–0.34 (32%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Oshie – Johansson – McMichael9:38
xG 0.19–0.71 (21%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:50
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Orlov – van Riemsdyk3:20
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk7:00
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Goodrow – Brodzinski3:25
xG 0.33–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hunt – Chytil – Kakko3:46
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière4:58
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vatrano8:19
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:11
xG 0.63–0.30 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Schneider13:26
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 6–23goals 2–1
- Trouba – Miller14:42
xG 0.63–0.80 (44%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).