Thu, Apr 28, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 112 | 19 | 227 |
| CBJ | 19 | 113 | 313 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:03CBJJakub VoracekAssists: Kent Johnson, Gabriel Carlsson · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 10:15TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 10:47CBJCole SillingerAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Dean Kukan · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 0:15CBJJack RoslovicPPGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Jake Bean · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 9:05CBJOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 16:54TBLCorey PerryPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 18:09CBJAndrew PeekeENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 11:51CBJJack Roslovic: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:59TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:52CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:05CBJGabriel Carlsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:43CBJJustin Danforth: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00TBLPatrick Maroon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CBJElvis Merzlikins: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:52CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:08TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P3 6:35CBJCole Sillinger: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:24CBJEgor Chinakhov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sillinger won the faceoff against Hagel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare6:47
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Paul – Colton – Hagel2:03
xG 0.01–0.03 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Paul – Point – Colton4:44
xG 0.08–0.16 (32%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Hagel3:07
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Sergachev9:11
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak9:09
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:13
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Chinakhov – Sillinger8:36
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Voracek – Nyquist – Roslovic11:12
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Danforth – Bemstrom – Robinson6:04
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Meyer – Johnson6:45
xG 0.28–0.64 (30%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKukan – Bean11:49
xG 0.84–0.44 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke14:22
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Carlsson – Bayreuther9:51
xG 0.60–0.67 (47%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).