Fri, Apr 29, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 19 | 09 | 128 |
| MIN | 211 | 16 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58MINJordan GreenwayAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 4:12MINTyson JostGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 3:46MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jared Spurgeon · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 5:38COLNazem KadriAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 19:28MINJordan GreenwayENAssists: Jake Middleton, Mathew Dumba · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–4
Penalties (17)
- P1 2:14COLLogan O'Connor: Boarding2 min
- P1 2:14MINBrandon Duhaime: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:14COLLogan O'Connor: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:14MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:14MINBrandon Duhaime: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 5:28COLKurtis MacDermid: Kneeing5 min
- P1 5:28COLKurtis MacDermid: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 6:41COLAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:41MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P1 12:06MINDmitry Kulikov: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:22MINJordan Greenway: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:40COLArtturi Lehkonen: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 19:25COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:31COLAndrew Cogliano: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:39MINNick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:31MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00COLSamuel Girard: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Meyers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Rantanen7:50
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Aube-Kubel – Sturm – Meyers5:00
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor4:22
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Newhook6:11
xG 0.07–0.62 (10%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – MacDonald6:55
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – MacDonald2:58
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Manson – MacDonald2:42
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Kaprizov – Jost8:21
xG 0.62–0.11 (84%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Fiala – Boldy6:37
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Bjugstad – Duhaime5:04
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Greenway – Eriksson Ek2:52
xG 0.01–0.04 (14%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton11:49
xG 0.93–0.47 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Kulikov – Merrill10:22
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba11:39
xG 0.16–0.32 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).