Sat, Oct 8, 2022·O2 Czech Republic, PragueNeutral site
Nashville Predators 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 38 | 03 | 318 |
| SJS | 111 | 17 | 015 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24SJSLuke KuninPPAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Mario Ferraro · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 4:35NSHNino NiederreiterAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:45SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Steven Lorentz, Mario Ferraro · Slap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 6:29NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 12:13NSHNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:05SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P1 3:06NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P1 13:09NSHTanner Jeannot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:01NSHNino Niederreiter: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:12SJSJaycob Megna: Interference2 min
- P3 2:03NSHJeremy Lauzon: Interference2 min
- P3 6:02SJSMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Glass – Tolvanen – Smith4:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Tolvanen4:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot7:25
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Sherwood3:11
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Carrier14:35
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Ekholm14:12
xG 0.24–0.47 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Fabbro10:38
xG 0.05–0.45 (10%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Labanc – Lorentz9:22
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Hertl – Meier – Kunin6:47
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Meier2:07
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Nieto – Lindblom8:32
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro16:34
xG 0.69–0.09 (89%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Benning11:09
xG 0.82–0.30 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Megna – Simek7:48
xG 0.03–0.18 (12%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).