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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 11, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York

Tampa Bay Lightning 1, New York Rangers 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.

NYR winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:14Shot by Stamkos, saved by Shesterkin
  3. P1 2:58Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy
  4. P1 7:08Shot by Lindgren, saved by Vasilevskiy
  5. P1 7:45Shot by Point, saved by Shesterkin
  6. P1 8:43Shot by Goodrow, saved by Vasilevskiy
  7. P1 9:04Shot by Paul, saved by Shesterkin
  8. P1 9:05Shot by Hagel, saved by Shesterkin
  9. P1 10:19Shot by Koepke, saved by Shesterkin
  10. P1 11:44Shot by Chytil, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 11:59Shot by Chytil, saved by Vasilevskiy
  12. P1 12:58Shot by Colton, saved by Shesterkin
  13. P1 13:15Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 13:18Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy
  15. P1 13:19Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy
  16. P1 16:13Cernak: Holding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: NYR Kreider, Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox, Lindgren, Kakko · TBL Perry, Maroon, Paul, Cernak, Sergachev

  17. P1 16:42Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  18. P1 16:53Shot by Trocheck, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  19. P1 17:20Shot by Kreider, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  20. P1 17:21Shot by Kreider, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  21. P1 17:46Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  22. P1 17:48Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  23. P1 18:27Shot by Stamkos, saved by Shesterkin
  24. P1 18:31Shot by Point, saved by Shesterkin
  25. P1 0:00Period end
  26. P2 0:00Period start
  27. P2 0:24Shot by Point, saved by Shesterkin
  28. P2 1:36Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin
  29. P2 2:07Trocheck: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Trocheck, Goodrow, Vesey, Lindgren, Chytil · TBL Perry, Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Foote

  30. P2 2:31Shot by Kucherov, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  31. P2 2:48Shot by Goodrow, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  32. P2 3:09Shot by Kreider, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  33. P2 3:13Shot by Kreider, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  34. P2 3:25Goal by Zibanejad (Trouba, Miller)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Zibanejad, Trouba, Miller, Lafrenière · TBL Perry, Stamkos, Kucherov, Paul, Sergachev

  35. P2 6:24Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 8:02Miller: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Goodrow, Trouba, Panarin, Chytil, Miller · TBL Killorn, Paul, Fleury, Myers, Hagel

  37. P2 8:02Goodrow: Elbowing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: NYR Goodrow, Trouba, Panarin, Chytil, Miller · TBL Killorn, Paul, Fleury, Myers, Hagel

  38. P2 9:05Shot by Kucherov, saved by Shesterkin3v5
  39. P2 9:09Goal by Stamkos (Kucherov, Point)3v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Carpenter, Fox, Lindgren · TBL Perry, Killorn, Stamkos, Kucherov, Point

  40. P2 10:01Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  41. P2 10:15Shot by Kucherov, saved by Shesterkin
  42. P2 10:55Shot by Panarin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  43. P2 12:33Colton: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Goodrow, Vesey, Fox, Lindgren, Chytil · TBL Namestnikov, Myers, Sergachev, Colton, Koepke

  44. P2 13:20Shot by Trocheck, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  45. P2 13:54Shot by Trocheck, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  46. P2 13:57Shot by Kreider, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  47. P2 14:00Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  48. P2 14:32Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  49. P2 14:38Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  50. P2 15:14Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy6v5
  51. P2 15:15Stamkos: Slashing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: NYR Zibanejad, Trouba, Chytil, Miller, Kakko, Lafrenière · TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Foote

  52. P2 16:32Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  53. P2 17:02Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  54. P2 17:19Shot by Paul, saved by Shesterkin
  55. P2 19:32Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P2 0:00Period end
  57. P3 0:00Period start
  58. P3 0:53Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 1:08Shot by Lindgren, saved by Vasilevskiy
  60. P3 1:33Shot by Myers, saved by Shesterkin
  61. P3 2:34Shot by Vesey, saved by Vasilevskiy
  62. P3 2:40Goodrow: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Goodrow, Vesey, Chytil, Jones, Schneider · TBL Perry, Maroon, Hedman, Bellemare, Foote

  63. P3 3:49Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  64. P3 4:59Namestnikov: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Goodrow, Trouba, Carpenter, Miller, Lafrenière · TBL Namestnikov, Paul, Myers, Sergachev, Colton

  65. P3 5:11Goal by Zibanejad (Panarin, Kreider)5v4+22 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Kreider, Trocheck, Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox · TBL Killorn, Paul, Cernak, Sergachev

  66. P3 5:49Shot by Trocheck, saved by Vasilevskiy
  67. P3 5:56Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy
  68. P3 6:08Shot by Miller, saved by Vasilevskiy
  69. P3 6:42Carpenter: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Reaves, Goodrow, Trouba, Carpenter, Miller · TBL Killorn, Paul, Fleury, Myers, Hagel

  70. P3 7:45Shot by Stamkos, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  71. P3 7:58Shot by Perry, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  72. P3 10:10Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy
  73. P3 11:00Goal by Goodrow (Lindgren, Carpenter)+13 pts WP

    On ice: NYR Reaves, Goodrow, Carpenter, Fox, Lindgren · TBL Killorn, Paul, Myers, Sergachev, Hagel

  74. P3 11:24Shot by Maroon, saved by Shesterkin
  75. P3 13:07Chytil: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: NYR Goodrow, Trouba, Vesey, Chytil, Miller · TBL Stamkos, Kucherov, Point, Myers, Sergachev

  76. P3 13:46Shot by Perry, saved by Shesterkin4v5
  77. P3 16:24Shot by Myers, saved by Shesterkin
  78. P3 18:12Shot by Perry, saved by Shesterkin5v6
  79. P3 18:21Shot by Stamkos, saved by Shesterkin5v6
  80. P3 19:49Shot by Perry, saved by Shesterkin5v6
  81. P3 0:00Period end5v6
  82. P3 0:00Final