Wed, Oct 12, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Boston Bruins 5, Washington Capitals 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 215 | 18 | 27 | 530 |
| WSH | 012 | 210 | 013 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 15:03BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci, Connor Clifton · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 6:14BOSTaylor HallGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Mike Reilly · Snap, 0.15 xG3–0
- P2 7:34WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Dylan Strome, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 12:43WSHConor ShearyAssists: Nic Dowd · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 16:17BOSDavid KrejciAssists: David Pastrnak, Pavel Zacha · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 18:55BOSHampus LindholmENUnassisted · Snap, 0.33 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:38BOSBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:12WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23BOSTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:43BOSTaylor Hall: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:54BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P3 4:20WSHNick Jensen: Holding2 min
- P3 7:09WSHMartin Fehérváry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Greer6:21
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Hall – DeBrusk7:02
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha11:05
xG 0.72–0.81 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Foligno – Nosek – Lauko6:49
xG 0.01–0.25 (4%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Forbort – Clifton4:26
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Reilly – Clifton10:56
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Forbort – Zboril10:23
xG 0.50–0.67 (43%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Strome – Protas9:35
xG 0.67–0.14 (82%)attempts 18–4goals 1–1
- Oshie – Eller – Johansson6:22
xG 0.68–0.46 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Sheary – Hathaway7:37
xG 0.18–0.15 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Brown9:50
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Jensen11:12
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Orlov – Gustafsson2:45
xG 0.07–0.01 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).