Wed, Oct 12, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Columbus Blue Jackets 1, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 010 | 114 | 08 | 132 |
| CAR | 010 | 213 | 220 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:11CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Zach Werenski · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 5:12CARSeth JarvisUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:30CARBrady SkjeiGWGAssists: Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 6:29CARMartin NecasAssists: Jordan Martinook, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 9:18CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Martin Necas, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:40CARBrett Pesce: Interference2 min
- P2 12:58CARCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:03CBJCole Sillinger: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:11CBJJustin Danforth: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Danforth – Sillinger7:11
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Chinakhov3:01
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Laine7:04
xG 0.40–0.05 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Voracek – Nyquist – Jenner2:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Boqvist13:34
xG 0.83–0.15 (84%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski4:27
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–15goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Gavrikov2:15
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Martinook – Kase8:36
xG 0.72–0.23 (76%)attempts 20–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:54
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Stastny – Staal – Fast9:35
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov12:36
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Chatfield12:51
xG 0.91–0.08 (92%)attempts 28–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:13
xG 1.09–0.91 (54%)attempts 23–18goals 3–0
- Burns – Slavin17:26
xG 0.42–1.14 (27%)attempts 25–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).