Wed, Oct 12, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 06 | 17 | 217 |
| COL | 212 | 210 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:44COLAndrew CoglianoAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:52CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Andreas Athanasiou · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:07COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 3:49COLArtturi LehkonenPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 10:12COLArtturi LehkonenPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 1:51CHIMax DomiPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 17:03COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:19CHITyler Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:22COLEvan Rodrigues: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:07CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:05CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:00CHIAlec Regula: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:20CHIJonathan Toews: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 18:23COLEvan Rodrigues: Interference2 min
- P3 0:39COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:58CHIJujhar Khaira: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 18:32CHISam Lafferty: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:32COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Domi won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Johnson – Raddysh8:20
xG 0.42–0.20 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Kane – Athanasiou – Domi9:26
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Khaira – Robinson7:34
xG 0.25–0.19 (57%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Lafferty – Entwistle – Kurashev7:53
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Roos3:05
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Jones – Roos2:31
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Regula3:07
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:19
xG 0.55–0.30 (65%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Compher – O'Connor10:09
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sedlak – MacDermid – Meyers7:37
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook10:00
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar14:24
xG 0.51–0.45 (53%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Manson – Byram11:55
xG 0.35–0.39 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard12:56
xG 0.25–0.56 (31%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).