Wed, Oct 12, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 3, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 214 | 114 | 08 | 336 |
| EDM | 08 | 37 | 210 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49VANElias PetterssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 2:40VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 0:39VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Bo Horvat · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 4:12EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 14:01EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 19:19EDMDarnell NurseSHAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 15:01EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 19:35EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Evander Kane, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:17EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:25EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:54VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:21EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55VANAndrei Kuzmenko: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 15:31EDMDylan Holloway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:26EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:35EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
- P3 5:50VANTanner Pearson: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:25EDMEvander Kane: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 17:46VANBrock Boeser: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Kuzmenko8:22
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman4:28
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser9:42
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Horvat – Garland – Podkolzin8:37
xG 0.41–0.75 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Stillman7:47
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Poolman10:55
xG 0.60–0.21 (74%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Schenn – Poolman2:47
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi4:20
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ryan – McLeod – Holloway3:46
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:17
xG 0.27–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi4:10
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse14:12
xG 0.96–0.41 (70%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Murray – Bouchard12:32
xG 0.60–0.67 (47%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Barrie – Kulak9:27
xG 0.00–0.50 (0%)attempts 3–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).