Thu, Oct 13, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 110 | 015 | 112 | 237 |
| PHI | 18 | 28 | 29 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01NJDAlexander HoltzPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Dawson Mercer · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 8:24PHIWade AllisonAssists: Ivan Provorov, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 10:39PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Kevin Hayes, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:02PHIMorgan FrostGWGAssists: Tanner Laczynski, James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 1:31PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 9:26NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 18:01PHIMorgan FrostENAssists: Tanner Laczynski, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.80 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:05PHIOwen Tippett: Boarding2 min
- P1 6:38PHIMorgan Frost: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:26NJDDawson Mercer: Interference2 min
- P1 16:18PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:27PHITony DeAngelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:27NJDNathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:41NJDDougie Hamilton: Interference2 min
- P2 19:48NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBratt – Sharangovich – Hughes3:34
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
- Haula – Palat – Mercer2:34
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Tatar – Boqvist – Holtz7:21
xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Palat – Hughes – Mercer6:55
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Graves11:25
xG 0.81–0.60 (58%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Severson – Marino2:34
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Graves – Marino2:29
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Allison – Frost2:13
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laczynski – Frost3:47
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny9:14
xG 0.22–0.33 (40%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Tippett – Cates – Farabee2:12
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seeler – Zamula11:09
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
- DeAngelo – Provorov13:47
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 12–20goals 3–0
- Braun – Sanheim13:14
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).