Thu, Oct 13, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 212 | 110 | 17 | 429 |
| NSH | 09 | 011 | 112 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31DALMason MarchmentAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:56DALMason MarchmentPPGWGAssists: Nils Lundkvist, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P2 19:09DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 4:22DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–0
- P3 4:53NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Eeli Tolvanen · Deflected, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:54DALMiro Heiskanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:51DALJani Hakanpää: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:51NSHYakov Trenin: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:51NSHTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:03NSHKiefer Sherwood: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 12:14NSHEeli Tolvanen: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:06DALColin Miller: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:18DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:01NSHAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:09DALJani Hakanpää: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson9:16
xG 0.58–0.18 (77%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:59
xG 0.40–0.26 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Johnston7:56
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea8:52
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen12:51
xG 1.07–0.29 (79%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Suter – Hakanpää11:31
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Lundkvist2:06
xG 0.04–0.08 (32%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Niederreiter – Tolvanen8:19
xG 0.43–0.12 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot8:02
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith5:09
xG 0.03–0.23 (13%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg9:46
xG 0.28–0.64 (30%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro2:40
xG 0.18–0.02 (88%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Fabbro6:21
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Carrier12:26
xG 0.42–0.50 (45%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).