Thu, Oct 13, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New York Rangers 7, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 38 | 113 | 314 | 735 |
| MIN | 015 | 115 | 26 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 16:03NYRAdam FoxAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 19:47NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 7:45MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Marcus Foligno · Slap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 16:54NYRFilip ChytilGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Barclay Goodrow · Backhand, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 4:18NYRVincent TrocheckAssists: Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 5:16MINMatt BoldyAssists: Jake Middleton · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 5:46NYRKaapo KakkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–2
- P3 6:20MINMatt BoldyAssists: Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.11 xG6–3
- P3 14:07NYRChris KreiderAssists: K'Andre Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.16 xG7–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 3:11MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:44NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:34MINRyan Hartman: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:06MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:19NYRZac Jones: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32NYRAdam Fox: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:10NYRChris Kreider: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:22MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:22NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17NYRRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:17MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:04NYRDryden Hunt: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:04MINJake Middleton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:22MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko9:00
xG 0.68–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Chytil9:33
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière10:30
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–11goals 3–1
- Reaves – Carpenter – Hunt5:32
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren13:53
xG 0.96–0.41 (70%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Miller – Schneider2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller9:48
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Steel – Boldy8:48
xG 0.48–0.09 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:56
xG 0.53–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–7goals 0–3
- Duhaime – Dewar – Rossi3:41
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Jost7:37
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon9:48
xG 0.72–0.27 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Middleton – Addison9:50
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Addison3:39
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).