Thu, Oct 13, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Colorado Avalanche 3, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 13 | 010 | 212 | 325 |
| CGY | 114 | 28 | 25 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:39COLBowen ByramAssists: Devon Toews, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 11:23CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Milan Lucic, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 2:31CGYDillon DubeSHAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 14:52CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Slap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 1:12CGYTyler ToffoliPPGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–4
- P3 2:47CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.23 xG1–5
- P3 3:08COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Pavel Francouz · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 11:01COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:21COLJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P1 1:21CGYDillon Dube: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:07COLLogan O'Connor: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:06COLCale Makar: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:54CGYNoah Hanifin: Holding2 min
- P2 12:42COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:42CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P2 12:42CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:21COLErik Johnson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:12COLCale Makar: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03CGYNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:25CGYMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 19:39COLArtturi Lehkonen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCogliano – Compher – O'Connor5:25
xG 0.23–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen8:48
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Sedlak – MacDermid – Meyers2:43
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook7:52
xG 0.28–0.73 (28%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Byram3:48
xG 0.40–0.06 (86%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar10:22
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson2:57
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Mangiapane – Dube8:52
xG 0.49–0.14 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm8:54
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney8:21
xG 0.19–0.22 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman7:42
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar12:08
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Stone – Zadorov8:59
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson13:18
xG 0.57–0.57 (50%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).