Fri, Oct 14, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 0, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 95% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 08 | 011 | 029 |
| DET | 025 | 09 | 36 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:33DETElmer SoderblomGWGAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P3 18:59DETMichael RasmussenENAssists: Andrew Copp, Dylan Larkin · Poke, 0.77 xG0–2
- P3 19:12DETOlli MaattaENAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.60 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:28MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:24DETFilip Hronek: Interference2 min
- P1 17:55MTLJosh Anderson: Interference2 min
- P2 2:36DETRobert Hagg: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:27MTLNick Suzuki: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:40DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Monahan – Dach9:12
xG 0.17–0.18 (50%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský7:33
xG 0.36–0.49 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Evans – Pitlick6:15
xG 0.08–0.25 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield10:59
xG 0.08–1.09 (7%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Xhekaj2:51
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Harris10:36
xG 0.30–0.20 (60%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Wideman – Guhle2:23
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Rasmussen – Soderblom7:05
xG 1.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond12:26
xG 0.74–0.14 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Perron – Copp – Vrana9:04
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Erne – Veleno7:51
xG 0.08–0.22 (28%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hronek15:55
xG 1.19–0.14 (89%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider10:10
xG 1.04–0.32 (76%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Hagg – Lindstrom11:46
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 95% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).