Fri, Oct 14, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Rangers 1, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 021 | 110 | 141 |
| WPG | 113 | 07 | 314 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 3:55NYRDryden HuntAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 15:35WPGSam GagnerGWGAssists: Saku Maenalanen, David Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 18:23WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 19:40WPGKyle ConnorENAssists: Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.79 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:20WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min
- P1 7:04NYRArtemi Panarin: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:58WPGMorgan Barron: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:54NYRFilip Chytil: Holding2 min
- P3 17:26NYRJacob Trouba: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Vesey – Chytil9:43
xG 0.74–0.55 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Kakko11:11
xG 0.69–0.72 (49%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carpenter – Hunt4:28
xG 0.02–0.19 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:02
xG 0.56–1.12 (33%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Fox – Lindgren15:43
xG 1.09–1.20 (48%)attempts 18–18goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller18:07
xG 0.47–0.82 (36%)attempts 19–18goals 1–1
- Hajek – Schneider13:05
xG 0.23–0.93 (20%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestGagner – Maenalanen – Gustafsson6:27
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor13:56
xG 1.13–0.78 (59%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron12:02
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Dubois – Perfetti10:51
xG 0.44–0.97 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk16:30
xG 1.52–0.21 (88%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey15:20
xG 0.52–0.83 (39%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Stanley12:30
xG 0.64–1.02 (39%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).