Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 2, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 24 | 013 | 013 | 230 |
| PHI | 014 | 29 | 18 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34VANKyle BurroughsAssists: Brock Boeser, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:12VANConor GarlandAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 10:32PHITony DeAngeloPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 17:49PHIScott LaughtonSHAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 13:53PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:40PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P1 4:17VANJ.T. Miller: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:27VANRiley Stillman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:25VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:57VANNils Hoglander: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:17VANLuke Schenn: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:08PHIOlle Lycksell: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:30PHIWade Allison: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:36PHIJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:55PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:55VANRiley Stillman: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:49PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:49VANKyle Burroughs: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:02PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestPettersson – Hoglander – Kuzmenko7:13
xG 1.05–0.37 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman8:13
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Horvat – Garland – Podkolzin7:52
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Miller – Pearson – Boeser8:06
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Stillman8:49
xG 1.02–0.46 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Burroughs – Hughes2:04
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Hughes2:20
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAllison – Cates – Farabee8:45
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hayes – Laughton – Konecny5:11
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laczynski – Frost8:20
xG 0.01–0.15 (6%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Lycksell – Cates5:12
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim10:45
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Seeler – Zamula10:09
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- DeAngelo – Provorov14:48
xG 0.85–1.33 (39%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).