Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 06 | 213 | 06 | 225 |
| STL | 14 | 113 | 38 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:05STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Torey Krug · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:04STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Justin Faulk, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:21CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 2:39CBJSean KuralyAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 10:43STLIvan BarbashevGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 11:03STLJake NeighboursAssists: Nick Leddy, Brayden Schenn · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:29STLVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:47CBJCole Sillinger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:45STLNiko Mikkola: Holding2 min
- P3 13:32CBJBoone Jenner: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:22STLRobert Bortuzzo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestRoslovic – Danforth – Johnson8:22
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Gaudreau – Jenner14:46
xG 0.62–0.52 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson8:35
xG 0.10–0.32 (24%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Voracek – Chinakhov – Sillinger10:56
xG 0.23–0.70 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean11:19
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Werenski – Boqvist13:35
xG 0.61–0.68 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Gudbranson – Werenski4:09
xG 0.01–0.32 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Buchnevich – Thomas13:41
xG 1.07–0.55 (66%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- O'Reilly – Saad – Kyrou10:47
xG 0.36–0.28 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Schenn – Barbashev – Neighbours10:28
xG 0.14–0.28 (32%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Walker – Acciari – Toropchenko9:26
xG 0.03–0.18 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug17:27
xG 1.04–0.57 (64%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
- Leddy – Parayko20:08
xG 0.77–0.64 (54%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola10:24
xG 0.14–0.38 (27%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).