Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 7, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 414 | 213 | 17 | 734 |
| MIN | 212 | 29 | 214 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Kevin Fiala, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 8:55LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Alex Iafallo, Quinton Byfield · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 11:13LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Slap, 0.10 xG3–0
- P1 12:57MINJake MiddletonAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P1 16:43MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P1 18:28LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Matt Roy · Slap, 0.02 xG4–2
- P2 5:25MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.23 xG4–3
- P2 9:11LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.17 xG5–3
- P2 12:12MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Filip Gustavsson · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
- P2 13:10LAKMatt RoyAssists: Brendan Lemieux, Arthur Kaliyev · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–4
- P3 5:56MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Calen Addison, Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.03 xG6–5
- P3 7:32MINSam SteelAssists: Ryan Hartman, Jonas Brodin · Poke, 0.22 xG6–6
- P3 8:03LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mikey Anderson · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–6
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:47MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:23MINMarco Rossi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56MINJonas Brodin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:33LAKDrew Doughty: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:57MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:57LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:57LAKBlake Lizotte: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:40MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:42LAKAdrian Kempe: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:41MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:47LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:37LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min
- P3 15:14MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestVilardi – Iafallo – Byfield6:57
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev4:54
xG 0.12–0.19 (40%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
- Moore – Iafallo – Byfield2:38
xG 0.07–0.19 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe10:08
xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Edler – Clarke9:22
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Roy – Durzi14:26
xG 0.48–0.55 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson13:32
xG 0.52–0.86 (38%)attempts 7–21goals 3–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Steel – Boldy4:49
xG 0.58–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Eriksson Ek – Jost6:31
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–2goals 1–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov4:47
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Gaudreau – Kaprizov6:06
xG 0.09–0.02 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba14:42
xG 1.02–0.73 (58%)attempts 24–12goals 2–2
- Spurgeon – Middleton12:26
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Addison9:38
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).