Sat, Oct 15, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 112 | 05 | 130 |
| DAL | 110 | 26 | 26 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:46DALRoope HintzSHAssists: Miro Heiskanen · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 0:39DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:48DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 18:20NSHNino NiederreiterPPAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 3:13DALJason RobertsonAssists: Roope Hintz, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 18:47DALMason MarchmentENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG1–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:30DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P1 5:28NSHCody Glass: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:26DALEsa Lindell: Interference2 min
- P2 6:00DALTy Dellandrea: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:00NSHDante Fabbro: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:59NSHMatt Duchene: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:59NSHMatt Duchene: Abuse of officials10 min
- P2 16:18DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P2 17:43DALColin Miller: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Granlund – Forsberg7:43
xG 0.49–0.17 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Jeannot6:59
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Tolvanen7:04
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Sanford – Glass – Smith5:30
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Carrier2:22
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro11:34
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Lauzon2:56
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:22
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Johnston8:35
xG 0.62–0.42 (59%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea8:08
xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:47
xG 0.01–0.35 (4%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Lundkvist2:20
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Hakanpää8:20
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist7:21
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).