Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 416 | 011 | 015 | 442 |
| EDM | 111 | 210 | 08 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Michael Stone, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 3:18EDMCody CeciAssists: Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 4:34CGYMichael StoneAssists: Kevin Rooney · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P1 7:41CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–1
- P1 10:18CGYAndrew MangiapaneGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
- P2 10:46EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Evander Kane, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.18 xG4–2
- P2 14:54EDMRyan McLeodAssists: Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:34EDMBrad Malone: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:34CGYBrett Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:31CGYRasmus Andersson: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:41EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 14:25EDMZach Hyman: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:56CGYMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:36EDMRyan McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:54EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:31CGYDillon Dube: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Ritchie – Rooney6:54
xG 0.26–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube6:57
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm8:09
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman9:35
xG 0.78–0.73 (52%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Zadorov10:08
xG 0.62–0.17 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:03
xG 1.22–0.79 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Tanev – Zadorov2:02
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – McDavid7:21
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:53
xG 0.28–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto2:27
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Foegele – Yamamoto – McLeod5:36
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Ceci9:06
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard7:51
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Barrie – Kulak11:33
xG 0.76–0.98 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).