Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 315 | 06 | 530 |
| SEA | 011 | 011 | 211 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: William Carrier · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 3:07VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 13:55VGKReilly SmithPPGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 17:11VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–0
- P2 19:43VGKShea TheodoreAssists: Phil Kessel, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–0
- P3 13:19SEAJustin SchultzAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 16:17SEAJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Vince Dunn · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:02SEAAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:24VGKAlec Martinez: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:37SEAVince Dunn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 6:44SEACarson Soucy: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:47SEACarson Soucy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:54VGKPaul Cotter: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 17:04SEAYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Smith – Eichel9:34
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy10:42
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Cotter11:28
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Howden12:37
xG 0.35–0.69 (33%)attempts 7–23goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore17:04
xG 1.32–0.35 (79%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Hague – Whitecloud14:31
xG 0.40–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo15:08
xG 0.37–0.62 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:49
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – Burakovsky – Beniers5:47
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Eberle – Gourde – Tanev4:22
xG 0.21–0.26 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – McCann – Beniers6:00
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Soucy6:45
xG 0.30–0.20 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Schultz – Oleksiak8:19
xG 0.30–0.35 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen7:23
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).