Mon, Oct 17, 2022·Madison Square Garden, New York
Anaheim Ducks 4, New York Rangers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 15 | 28 | 422 |
| NYR | 216 | 318 | 19 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:34NYRVincent TrocheckPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 13:10NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 15:48ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Pavol Regenda, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 1:34ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Troy Terry, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 9:54NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Deflected, 0.22 xG2–3
- P2 17:39NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Filip Chytil, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 19:26NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren · Snap, 0.12 xG2–5
- P3 5:33ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Troy Terry · Slap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 11:42NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Slap, 0.04 xG3–6
- P3 16:14ANADerek GrantAssists: Max Jones, Pavol Regenda · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:15ANAMason McTavish: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 11:29ANADerek Grant: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:51NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:17ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:29ANAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Terry – Zegras11:19
xG 0.79–0.30 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Grant – Jones – Regenda5:38
xG 0.25–0.08 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Jones – Lundeström – Regenda2:53
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Grant – Comtois – Leason2:20
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – White13:18
xG 0.23–0.19 (56%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Fowler – Klingberg2:21
xG 0.02–0.20 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Fowler – Drysdale14:24
xG 0.82–1.06 (43%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Kakko11:52
xG 1.45–0.44 (77%)attempts 25–6goals 1–1
- Vesey – Blais – Chytil11:58
xG 0.68–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Hunt7:38
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:54
xG 0.58–0.97 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Schneider12:07
xG 1.13–0.41 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:35
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 1–2
- Trouba – Miller14:50
xG 0.98–0.84 (54%)attempts 25–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).