Mon, Oct 17, 2022·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 3, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 011 | 110 | 220 | 341 |
| BOS | 112 | 19 | 313 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:21BOSJake DeBruskUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 4:32FLASam BennettAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rudolfs Balcers · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:35BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:01BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 12:31BOSTrent FredericGWGAssists: A.J. Greer, Connor Clifton · Wrap-around, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 12:58FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Colin White, Eetu Luostarinen · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–4
- P3 18:23FLAColin WhiteAssists: Sam Bennett, Gustav Forsling · Snap, 0.28 xG3–4
- P3 18:57BOSJake DeBruskENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.54 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:42FLAAaron Ekblad: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:38BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P1 10:16BOSCharlie Coyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 18:52FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:26BOSTomas Nosek: Kneeing2 min
- P2 10:26BOSNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:26FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:26FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:49BOSDerek Forbort: Holding2 min
- P3 4:52FLAGustav Forsling: Interference2 min
- P3 14:06BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBennett – Balcers – Tkachuk8:20
xG 0.38–0.09 (82%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- White – Luostarinen – Lundell7:21
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Hornqvist – Cousins – Lomberg4:59
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart10:38
xG 0.51–0.90 (36%)attempts 12–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling3:13
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Staal – Ekblad6:31
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mahura8:07
xG 0.41–0.36 (53%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Hall – Pastrnak4:28
xG 0.50–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Zacha – DeBrusk3:57
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Hall – DeBrusk3:20
xG 0.24–0.13 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – Zacha2:26
xG 0.13–0.07 (64%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Clifton13:15
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 16–13goals 4–0
- Reilly – Lindholm13:08
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Clifton2:34
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).