Mon, Oct 17, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vancouver Canucks 4, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 319 | 04 | 430 |
| WSH | 17 | 113 | 410 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 19:52VANElias PetterssonAssists: Quinn Hughes, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 0:08WSHLars EllerAssists: Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 8:03VANBo HorvatAssists: Tanner Pearson, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 8:14VANCurtis LazarAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:34VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 1:16WSHDylan StromePPAssists: John Carlson, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 8:43WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 12:44WSHConor ShearyGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–5
- P3 17:02WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:36VANBrock Boeser: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:44WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:06VANBo Horvat: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:38WSHConor Sheary: Holding2 min
- P3 3:38VANDakota Joshua: Interference2 min
- P3 17:02VANVasily Podkolzin: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Garland – Podkolzin11:18
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Lazar – Pettersson – Kuzmenko10:52
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Joshua – Hoglander – Aman9:20
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser10:58
xG 0.89–1.02 (47%)attempts 13–19goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hughes14:22
xG 0.76–0.55 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Hughes2:11
xG 0.20–0.15 (58%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Burroughs – Stillman2:04
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Sheary3:40
xG 0.87–0.05 (95%)attempts 10–2goals 3–0
- Eller – Johansson – Protas10:45
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Mantha5:35
xG 0.22–0.13 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Mantha – Strome6:14
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov3:48
xG 0.43–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry4:43
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – van Riemsdyk10:58
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).