Mon, Oct 17, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 211 | 110 | 114 | 11 | 536 |
| DET | 111 | 112 | 29 | 01 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26DETAdam ErneAssists: Pius Suter, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:45LAKGabriel VilardiAssists: Alex Iafallo, Drew Doughty · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 14:40LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 9:15DETDavid PerronAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 16:18LAKPhillip DanaultAssists: Trevor Moore, Sean Durzi · Snap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 11:14DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Oskar Sundqvist · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 13:16LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala · Poke, 0.24 xG4–3
- P3 19:19DETOskar SundqvistAssists: David Perron, Dominik Kubalik · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- OT 1:12LAKPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Trevor Moore · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:59DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:50LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:54LAKSean Durzi: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:07DETDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P2 17:57DETLucas Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:07LAKKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:09DETElmer Soderblom: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:58LAKBrandt Clarke: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestVilardi – Iafallo – Byfield8:31
xG 0.82–0.27 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte4:56
xG 0.53–0.08 (87%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe9:39
xG 0.65–0.34 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore11:01
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Clarke9:07
xG 0.84–0.08 (92%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:45
xG 1.09–0.48 (70%)attempts 24–12goals 2–1
- Roy – Durzi12:14
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Larkin – Raymond6:44
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Kubalik – Larkin3:25
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Rasmussen – Soderblom6:13
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
- Perron – Copp – Zadina4:32
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Hronek10:19
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Chiarot – Seider12:09
xG 0.35–0.58 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 0–3
- Hagg – Lindstrom12:43
xG 0.41–1.14 (26%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).