Mon, Oct 17, 2022·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 06 | 011 | 125 |
| DAL | 19 | 211 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:20DALTyler SeguinAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 15:38DALJani HakanpääGWGAssists: Ryan Suter, Mason Marchment · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 17:28DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Esa Lindell · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 8:12DALMiro HeiskanenPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:55WPGLogan Stanley: Interference2 min
- P2 3:50DALColin Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:57DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:24WPGAdam Lowry: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:56WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:48WPGLogan Stanley: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:46DALJoel Kiviranta: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 14:40DALColin Miller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dubois – Perfetti9:56
xG 0.61–0.22 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Appleton – Barron8:01
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Maenalanen – Gustafsson4:53
xG 0.10–0.23 (31%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor12:54
xG 0.54–0.84 (39%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Stanley10:04
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey12:11
xG 0.47–0.48 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pionk13:06
xG 0.28–0.89 (24%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:52
xG 0.65–0.40 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Dellandrea10:04
xG 0.42–0.17 (71%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:17
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Gurianov – Johnston8:52
xG 0.08–0.53 (13%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hakanpää9:42
xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell2:34
xG 0.17–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist8:44
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).