Mon, Oct 17, 2022·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Seattle Kraken 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 311 | 112 | 534 |
| SEA | 06 | 15 | 012 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35CARSeth JarvisAssists: Sebastian Aho, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 12:11CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brent Burns · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 13:06SEAAndre BurakovskyPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 13:24CARAndrei SvechnikovPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 14:34CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Deflected, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 14:41CARJordan MartinookAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:33CARDylan Coghlan: Interference2 min
- P1 9:42CARMartin Necas: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:43SEAAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P2 8:25SEAJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:52SEAJordan Eberle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14SEAVince Dunn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:04CARMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P2 18:41SEAJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:13CARStefan Noesen: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNecas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:53
xG 0.90–0.12 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Stepan – Noesen – Martinook5:57
xG 0.48–0.18 (72%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Stastny – Staal – Fast8:55
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis8:49
xG 0.68–0.65 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:12
xG 0.91–0.21 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:09
xG 0.88–0.34 (72%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Chatfield – Coghlan11:01
xG 0.56–0.59 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg11:11
xG 0.66–0.56 (54%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Sprong – Geekie – Wright2:44
xG 0.14–0.07 (67%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Gourde – McCann – Tanev6:10
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Tanev – Geekie – Wright2:31
xG 0.04–0.13 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSoucy – Borgen8:11
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Schultz – Soucy4:57
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen4:44
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).