Tue, Oct 18, 2022·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vancouver Canucks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 29 | 08 | 116 | 02 | 335 |
| CBJ | 08 | 112 | 210 | 13 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:51VANBo HorvatSHAssists: Elias Pettersson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 11:11VANElias PetterssonAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 15:42CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Egor Chinakhov · Bat, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 6:18CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Boone Jenner, Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 7:00VANBo HorvatAssists: Tucker Poolman, Quinn Hughes · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 9:27CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Boone Jenner, Jakub Voracek · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 3:21CBJVladislav GavrikovGWGAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:04VANCurtis Lazar: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:17CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:17VANLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:12CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:25CBJNick Blankenburg: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:10VANQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P3 14:34CBJGustav Nyquist: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Pearson – Horvat – Boeser11:28
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko9:44
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Hoglander – Podkolzin13:17
xG 0.45–0.86 (35%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Lazar – Joshua – Aman7:12
xG 0.21–0.69 (24%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Ekman-Larsson16:22
xG 0.42–0.35 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Hughes2:07
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stillman9:34
xG 0.23–0.91 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Gaudreau – Jenner15:08
xG 0.82–0.08 (91%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Danforth – Chinakhov – Sillinger4:38
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Robinson10:22
xG 0.45–0.35 (56%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Roslovic – Danforth – Johnson4:25
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Peeke7:20
xG 0.80–0.19 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Gudbranson – Werenski4:41
xG 0.47–0.14 (76%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Gavrikov3:54
xG 0.10–0.02 (80%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).