Tue, Oct 18, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
San Jose Sharks 2, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 19 | 18 | 011 | 228 |
| NYI | 011 | 321 | 214 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:50SJSNico SturmAssists: Evgeny Svechnikov, Jaycob Megna · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:03NYIAnders LeeAssists: Adam Pelech, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 14:48NYIZach PariseAssists: Noah Dobson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 17:10SJSEvgeny SvechnikovAssists: Matt Benning · Deflected, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 19:04NYIOliver WahlstromGWGAssists: Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 5:24NYIOliver WahlstromAssists: Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 17:34NYICal ClutterbuckENAssists: Matt Martin, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.70 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:18NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P1 16:25SJSMatt Benning: Holding2 min
- P2 6:36SJSNico Sturm: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 1:29NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:03SJSLogan Couture: Holding2 min
- P3 5:51NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSvechnikov – Gadjovich – Sturm10:00
xG 0.88–0.69 (56%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Couture – Meier – Kunin10:53
xG 0.56–0.51 (53%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Hertl – Meier – Barabanov2:18
xG 0.10–0.15 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hertl – Lorentz – Barabanov8:04
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Megna12:46
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro3:27
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Benning13:05
xG 0.75–0.99 (43%)attempts 13–18goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Nelson – Wahlstrom5:16
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 3–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:57
xG 0.61–0.40 (60%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Bailey – Pageau – Wahlstrom5:00
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Parise – Bailey – Pageau4:09
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Salo12:14
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov14:40
xG 1.06–0.89 (54%)attempts 26–11goals 3–1
- Mayfield – Romanov2:34
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).