Tue, Oct 18, 2022·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Los Angeles Kings 4, Nashville Predators 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 17 | 215 | 02 | 1 | 435 |
| NSH | 15 | 218 | 03 | 06 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32NSHCody GlassAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:24LAKGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Sean Durzi · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 8:32NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mikael Granlund, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:29NSHTanner JeannotAssists: Colton Sissons · Snap, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 13:00LAKMatt RoyAssists: Brendan Lemieux · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 17:52LAKMatt RoyAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Quinton Byfield · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 2. LAK Kevin Fiala stopped
- 3. NSH Matt Duchene stopped
- 4. LAK Gabriel Vilardi scored
- 5. NSH Roman Josi stopped
Penalties (15)
- P1 1:47LAKBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:47NSHTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:21NSHDante Fabbro: Interference2 min
- P1 16:39LAKBrandt Clarke: Holding2 min
- P1 19:36NSHCole Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:54NSHRoman Josi: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:48NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:17NSHMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:15LAKSean Walker: Holding2 min
- P2 15:22LAKBrandt Clarke: Holding2 min
- P3 4:42NSHJeremy Lauzon: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:12NSHCole Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 16:08LAKViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:47NSHMatt Duchene: Slashing2 min
- OT 3:12LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKopitar – Fiala – Kempe7:51
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Lemieux – Grundstrom – Lizotte3:41
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Lemieux – Lizotte – Kaliyev2:09
xG 0.14–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Grundstrom – Vilardi – Byfield3:23
xG 0.07–0.16 (30%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Clarke5:33
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Clarke2:34
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Roy – Durzi7:34
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot4:40
xG 0.40–0.01 (98%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg10:08
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Sanford – Glass – Smith3:00
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johansen – Niederreiter – Sanford3:02
xG 0.15–0.23 (40%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Fabbro2:14
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier9:49
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Ekholm9:35
xG 0.31–0.51 (38%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).