Tue, Oct 18, 2022·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Buffalo Sabres 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 212 | 15 | 424 |
| EDM | 115 | 010 | 123 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 4:23EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:44BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 5:15BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 18:27EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:55BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:38EDMBrett Kulak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P1 3:38BUFJeff Skinner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 3:55EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:40BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:28BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:20EDMWarren Foegele: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:20BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:20EDMWarren Foegele: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:08BUFHenri Jokiharju: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:59EDMRyan McLeod: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:35EDMDarnell Nurse: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Hinostroza – Cozens – Peterka8:15
xG 0.12–0.32 (27%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt7:55
xG 0.14–0.44 (24%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs4:22
xG 0.09–0.43 (17%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson11:36
xG 0.88–1.38 (39%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Bryson2:20
xG 0.10–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Bryson – Power2:33
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin4:12
xG 0.10–0.15 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl3:06
xG 0.93–0.04 (96%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – McDavid2:17
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Foegele – Puljujarvi – McLeod2:26
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kane – McDavid – Yamamoto10:43
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard4:13
xG 0.65–0.04 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:58
xG 1.39–0.81 (63%)attempts 22–10goals 0–1
- Barrie – Kulak5:34
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).