Tue, Oct 18, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 29 | 07 | 05 | 221 |
| CGY | 013 | 215 | 112 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:55VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 15:23VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Brayden McNabb, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 10:43CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 13:19CGYTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 15:31CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:05CGYMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:33CGYMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:08VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:25VGKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:08VGKWilliam Carrier: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:53VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:51VGKWilliam Karlsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:08VGKZach Whitecloud: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:04CGYTyler Toffoli: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:13CGYNikita Zadorov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Smith – Eichel6:55
xG 0.11–0.06 (65%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Carrier – Kolesar – Roy6:26
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Cotter8:00
xG 0.21–0.49 (30%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Howden8:17
xG 0.17–0.70 (19%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Martinez – Pietrangelo11:48
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud10:00
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- McNabb – Theodore12:09
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Huberdeau – Lindholm5:59
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Kadri – Mangiapane – Dube8:45
xG 0.53–0.25 (68%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Lewis – Backlund – Coleman7:41
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Lucic – Ritchie – Rooney7:44
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Weegar12:20
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 1–1
- Stone – Zadorov12:18
xG 0.52–0.20 (72%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson10:41
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).