Wed, Oct 19, 2022·Ball Arena, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 111 | 05 | 11 | 428 |
| COL | 010 | 314 | 09 | 00 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:52WPGSam GagnerPPAssists: Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 13:21WPGNeal PionkAssists: Mason Appleton, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 2:14COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 9:44WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 16:26COLMikko RantanenAssists: Bowen Byram, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 18:27COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 0:31WPGNeal PionkGWGAssists: Mason Appleton · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:23COLSamuel Girard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:57WPGCole Perfetti: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:57COLMartin Kaut: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:55COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:50WPGMason Appleton: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P3 6:32COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Newhook won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dubois – Perfetti11:33
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton13:17
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Gagner – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson6:06
xG 0.05–0.25 (17%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Lowry – Maenalanen – Barron10:15
xG 0.09–0.71 (11%)attempts 2–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Schmidt15:35
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg13:42
xG 0.45–0.55 (45%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Morrissey – Pionk17:03
xG 0.34–0.85 (29%)attempts 7–27goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:17
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- Megna – Blidh – O'Connor4:04
xG 0.11–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Kaut8:27
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Nichushkin – Rodrigues – Newhook2:37
xG 0.06–0.14 (30%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMakar – Byram3:12
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Manson – Byram12:21
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Girard – Makar3:16
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).